First Week of Monsoon in Kerala to be String One

Published on: 24 May, 2013
Published under: Kerala Weather News

23 May 2013

All available indications point to a strong phase of South-West monsoon in the first week of June, after seasonal rains break over Kerala coast. This would be underwritten by a wet phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that passes above the Indian Ocean during this period.

The strong phase would kick off from May 28 and last for 11 days until June 7. Gusty winds might bear down over Kerala and Konkan-Mumbai coasts and trigger copious rain. Rains may relent later, depending on how monsoon dynamics become established by that time.

Available indications suggest that this could indeed be the situation, and the monsoon is shown as running up whole peninsula and East India thanks to concurrent activity in the Bay of Bengal. US forecast models have also indicated thatJune could likely witness normal to above normal rainfall.

A prominent pre-monsoon atmospheric formation is already setting up a chain of thunderstorms over peninsular and South India. This would set the stage for copybook-style conditions culminating likely in onset of the monsoon early next week, according to international weather models .


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